XWord Muggles Forum

Hi folks!

I was just wondering if anybody knows, or has an idea of how many people actually submit an answer for the Crossword Contest? I want that mug real bad and I was just curious what the odds are of winning. I can't find anywhere that actually tells how many people "play" on an average week.

Thanks!

pilsbandy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 11:43 pm Hi folks!

I was just wondering if anybody knows, or has an idea of how many people actually submit an answer for the Crossword Contest? I want that mug real bad and I was just curious what the odds are of winning. I can't find anywhere that actually tells how many people "play" on an average week.

Thanks!

Search for posts made by user @MikeMillerwsj . Every week he posts the puzzle answer, the winner's name, and the stats for total number of submissions and what percentage were correct.

MikeM000 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 8:36 am

pilsbandy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 11:43 pm Hi folks!

I was just wondering if anybody knows, or has an idea of how many people actually submit an answer for the Crossword Contest? I want that mug real bad and I was just curious what the odds are of winning. I can't find anywhere that actually tells how many people "play" on an average week.

Thanks!

Search for posts made by user @MikeMillerwsj . Every week he posts the puzzle answer, the winner's name, and the stats for total number of submissions and what percentage were correct.

Great advice. I think @Bob cruise director & @BarbaraK keep these stats, also, if not several other muggles.

Joe Ross wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:19 am

MikeM000 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 8:36 am

pilsbandy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 11:43 pm Hi folks!

I was just wondering if anybody knows, or has an idea of how many people actually submit an answer for the Crossword Contest? I want that mug real bad and I was just curious what the odds are of winning. I can't find anywhere that actually tells how many people "play" on an average week.

Thanks!

Search for posts made by user @MikeMillerwsj . Every week he posts the puzzle answer, the winner's name, and the stats for total number of submissions and what percentage were correct.

Great advice. I think @Bob cruise director & @BarbaraK keep these stats, also, if not several other muggles.

@MikeM000 and @Joe Ross Neither @BarbaraK nor I nor anyone else have any way of knowing how many of the muggles who say they are on shore or on ship either submit an answer to the WSJ nor how many of those who submit to the WSJ are correct.

What I do calculate is the percentage of the people who are "On Shore" vs the number of those who have the correct answer as identified by Mike Miller.

What I have found is that a relatively small percentage of WSJ submissions - right or wrong - are muggles who declare themselves on shore. This percentage ran about 10% prior to the forum and has grown to about 15%. Both of which are not significant in calculating whether you are going to win a mug or not.

I also calculate other ratios but they have not provided much of an insight into the impact of muggles actions or the forum.

pilsbandy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 11:43 pm Hi folks!

I was just wondering if anybody knows, or has an idea of how many people actually submit an answer for the Crossword Contest? I want that mug real bad and I was just curious what the odds are of winning. I can't find anywhere that actually tells how many people "play" on an average week.

Thanks!

I keep a spreadsheet with the info Mike Miller posts search.php?author_id=56&sr=posts every week. The number of submissions has been going up over time, so I'll just look at 2022 rather than the entire history of the contest.

This year, there have been an average of 1554 submissions for each contest with 1278 of them correct. If you sent in the correct answer every week, you'd have had a 5% chance of winning a mug.

I don’t think it works like that. Your average odds of winning in any week are .07%. It doesn’t matter how many times you play.

A while ago, @xivxav created a "MicroMug" Calculator to keep a running total of the fractions of a mug you "earn" with every correct submission. Thank you for bringing that back to mind - I went and updated my stats!

I don't know who is keeping it updated week to week, but a big thanks for doing so!

Zobo3737 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 10, 2023 6:12 pm I don’t think it works like that. Your average odds of winning in any week are .07%. It doesn’t matter how many times you play.

@Zobo3737 What @BarbaraK was saying was that if your odds of winning in any particular week are .07% and you submit the correct answer each and every week, then the odds of you winning the mug one or more times in a 52 week time period are about 5%.

Bob cruise director wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:31 pm odds of you winning the mug one or more times in a 52 week time period are about 5%.

So if I answer correctly for 20 years, my odds are 100%?

Abide wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 5:57 pm

Bob cruise director wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:31 pm odds of you winning the mug one or more times in a 52 week time period are about 5%.

So if I answer correctly for 20 years, my odds are 100%?

For cumulative odds, you do multiplication, not addition.

If there's a 5% chance that you'll win this year, there's a 95% chance that you won't.

The chance that you won't win in 20 years is (95% x 95% x 95% ...) or .95^20 = ~36%.

So the chance that you will win at least once in 20 years is ~64%

Ah that makes more sense. The stuff you learn around here...

BarbaraK wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:09 pm

Abide wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 5:57 pm

Bob cruise director wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:31 pm odds of you winning the mug one or more times in a 52 week time period are about 5%.

So if I answer correctly for 20 years, my odds are 100%?

For cumulative odds, you do multiplication, not addition.

If there's a 5% chance that you'll win this year, there's a 95% chance that you won't.

The chance that you won't win in 20 years is (95% x 95% x 95% ...) or .95^20 = ~36%.

So the chance that you will win at least once in 20 years is ~64%

Thanks @BarbaraK I was just writing that up

You guys have it all wrong. If I've learned anything from my three times repeating my "Probability and Statistics" course, the odds are 50% - either it happens or it doesn't.

Al Sisti wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2023 10:39 pm You guys have it all wrong. If I've learned anything from my three times repeating my "Probability and Statistics" course, the odds are 50% - either it happens or it doesn't.

Great point. What I learned in statistics many years ago goes something like this:

You flip a coin 5 times and each time it comes up heads.

What are the odds of the coin coming up tails on the 6th coin flip?

Answer: 50 - 50.

ship4u wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 3:01 pm

Al Sisti wrote: ↑Tue Nov 14, 2023 10:39 pm You guys have it all wrong. If I've learned anything from my three times repeating my "Probability and Statistics" course, the odds are 50% - either it happens or it doesn't.

Great point. What I learned in statistics many years ago goes something like this:

You flip a coin 5 times and each time it comes up heads.

What are the odds of the coin coming up tails on the 6th coin flip?

Answer: 50 - 50.

And thanks for not commenting on the "three times repeating..." the course. Which I did.