"Winter Fall" - December 17, 2021

[Cosmo]

On shore! Easiest solve I've had in a long time. The answer was just as fun as the mechanism!

[mitchel674]

On shore.

Clever mechanism. Enjoyed this one.

[FKelly]

On the beach, but a bit cold on the North Sea.
Made my way south to 8-D 13 for the holidays. (Was it 5 miles or 60 miles south?)
Schultzie 'acquired' a Christmas tree and the Colonel is mixing up some homebrew. Cheers everyone!

[Lacern]

I never done it, but I need a nudge tonight.

[EVJ]

Ashore! I needed a lot of help again so not submitting.
Can’t seem to get my meta mojo going. I’m blaming it on the pandemic (I’m blaming everything on the pandemic); pandemic-meta-brain-fog. But it’s good to be on the beach with you all. Is that pitcher of Cadillac Margaritas still going around?

[MamaE]

Finally made it to shore….picked it back up after getting only halfway yesterday and was able to see what I was missing.

[Jarrod]

On Shore! First time in a few weeks. Maker's and Coke to assist!

[diplomatt]

On the beach! Sipping the spiked egg nog!

[Puzzle mom]

Ashore! Finally!

[JeanneC]

Grid finished but the meta is another story. Fortunately, Isaac makes a WONDERFUL eggnog so I am enjoying my time at the bar.
I shall carry on!

[David R]

Hmm for some reason was looking for an answer that was eight letters long and then realized I was off by one, lol. Got the meta now.

[Barney]

On shore.

I got a late start because I moved to Nashville from Bellevue WA last week.

My first idea was very slightly off, but I figured that out and got the answer. After that, DrTom helped me figure out that I'd made a mistake in my grid.

Tell us what that was on Monday. I have the answer, but also an unresolved question.

[Gman]

On shore. This one was not as easy as described on this blog, especially given the many tantalizing bunny trails. Good luck!

[wildjed]

Finally ashore!
Paper plane for me this time, Isaac my friend.

[Franklin.Bluth]

Ashore

[Joepickett]

Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....

@Chantellebeal Your odds are better than winning the lottery but don't plan on having a mug for the holidays. And they are not getting better because the WSJ has more submissions. From the beginning of the contests the average number of correct answers is 992. Over the past 52 weeks, the average number of correct answers is 1181.

So ballpark, your odds are about 1 in 1000. Given that there are 52 contests in a year, that means that might win a mug every 20 years (not mathematically rigorous but good enough)

More rigorously, assuming that you solve the meta every week, that the probability is 999/1000 that you will not win the mug in a week given that you have solved the meta, and that winners are chosen randomly, and accounting for 52 weeks in a year, then the probability is (999/1000)^52 or about 0.949 that you will not win the mug in a year, so you have about a 5% chance of winning the mug in a given year if you solve all the metas that year.

You have a 50% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 693 weeks (13+ years).
You have a 65% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 1040 weeks (20ish years).
You have a 95% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 2995 weeks (57+ years).

Can we agree that we're here for the company?

So you are saying I have a chance?

[Annabelle]

Finally on shore after several trips around the world!

[JaneGummy]

On the beach tho I needed some nudging, like others I struggled with two of the letters. As always, very clever meta.

[Dplass]

Thanks! I am just wondering about the odds of ever winning a mug.....

@Chantellebeal Your odds are better than winning the lottery but don't plan on having a mug for the holidays. And they are not getting better because the WSJ has more submissions. From the beginning of the contests the average number of correct answers is 992. Over the past 52 weeks, the average number of correct answers is 1181.

So ballpark, your odds are about 1 in 1000. Given that there are 52 contests in a year, that means that might win a mug every 20 years (not mathematically rigorous but good enough)

More rigorously, assuming that you solve the meta every week, that the probability is 999/1000 that you will not win the mug in a week given that you have solved the meta, and that winners are chosen randomly, and accounting for 52 weeks in a year, then the probability is (999/1000)^52 or about 0.949 that you will not win the mug in a year, so you have about a 5% chance of winning the mug in a given year if you solve all the metas that year.

You have a 50% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 693 weeks (13+ years).
You have a 65% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 1040 weeks (20ish years).
You have a 95% chance of winning a mug if you solve every meta for 2995 weeks (57+ years).

Can we agree that we're here for the company?

Naw, we're here for the PAGEANTry!

[MarkWoychick]

Ashore, solved and submitted - really liked the puzzle and solution, despite it taking me far too long to see!